Martina Franca vs Afragolese prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Martina Franca or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
1
Value bet: Martina Franca to win @ 1.90 – our chance 62% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMartina Franca to win ✓62% · @1.90
Double chanceMartina Franca or draw ✓82% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.36
Martina Franca vs Afragolese preview and prediction
The match
Afragolese travel to Stadio Gian Domenico Tursi in the Serie D Girone H on Sunday 29 March (14:30 WAT) to face Martina Franca.
Form guide
Martina Franca's last 4: LWWW Most recently they lost to Paganese 2–3 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Afragolese's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Fidelis Andria 2–1 at home. They average 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Martina Franca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Martina Franca and 0.8 for Afragolese. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Martina Franca 62%, draw 20%, Afragolese 18%.
Safer route: Martina Franca or draw (82%) at 1.28.
Value angle: Martina Franca to win at 1.90 – 62% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Martina Franca or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Martina Franca 1–0 Afragolese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Martina Franca62%fair 1.61 · @1.90
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.25
Afragolese18%fair 5.70 · @3.60
2.57Expected goals
1.78Martina Franca xG
0.79Afragolese xG
47%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Martina Franca 1.8 – 0.8 Afragolese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Martina Franca to win✓
62%
1.61
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Martina Franca or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Martina Franca ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Martina Franca / FT Martina Franca✓
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.36
–
Form
Martina Franca – last 4
LWWW
22 Mar
@ Paganese
2–3
L
1 Mar
vs Ferrandina
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Pompei
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Manfredonia
4–3
W
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Afragolese – last 5
WDWLD
22 Mar
vs Fidelis Andria
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Ferrandina
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Real Acerrana
5–2
W
22 Feb
@ Barletta
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Nardò
0–0
D
1.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Martina Franca and Afragolese.
What is the prediction for Martina Franca vs Afragolese?
Our pick is Martina Franca or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Martina Franca vs Afragolese?
On our numbers Martina Franca have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Afragolese 18%.
How many goals will there be in Martina Franca vs Afragolese?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Martina Franca vs Afragolese?
Our predicted score is Martina Franca 1–0 Afragolese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Martina Franca vs Afragolese?
Martina Franca vs Afragolese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Gian Domenico Tursi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pompei1
Città di Fasano1
Ferrandina1
Paganese1
Barletta1