Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.72 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.72Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPaganese to win ✗61% · @1.72
Double chancePaganese or draw ✓81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.64
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.57
Ferrandina vs Paganese preview and prediction
The match
Ferrandina host Paganese in the Serie D Girone H on Sunday 29 March, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Campo Sportivo Ferrandina.
Form guide
Ferrandina's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Real Normanna 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
Paganese's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Martina Franca 3–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded.
Paganese arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.4 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.6 for Ferrandina and 1.5 for Paganese. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Paganese to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.72, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ferrandina 0–1 Paganese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ferrandina19%fair 5.25 · @4.35
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.35
Paganese61%fair 1.64 · @1.72
2.11Expected goals
0.63Ferrandina xG
1.47Paganese xG
39%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–118%
0–213%
0–012%
1–111%
1–28%
1–08%
From our goals model: Ferrandina 0.6 – 1.5 Paganese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paganese to win✗
61%
1.64
1.72
Double chance
Paganese or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paganese / FT Paganese✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.57
–
Form
Ferrandina – last 5
LDLLL
22 Mar
@ Real Normanna
1–3
L
15 Mar
vs Afragolese
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Martina Franca
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Manfredonia
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Barletta
0–2
L
0.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Paganese – last 5
WLLDW
22 Mar
vs Martina Franca
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Manfredonia
1–3
L
1 Mar
vs Barletta
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Sarnese
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Pompei
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferrandina and Paganese.
What is the prediction for Ferrandina vs Paganese?
Our pick is Paganese to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.72.
Who will win Ferrandina vs Paganese?
On our numbers Ferrandina have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Paganese 61%.
How many goals will there be in Ferrandina vs Paganese?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferrandina vs Paganese?
Our predicted score is Ferrandina 0–1 Paganese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Ferrandina vs Paganese?
Ferrandina vs Paganese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Sportivo Ferrandina.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pompei1
Città di Fasano1
Manfredonia1
Gravina2
Martina Franca2
Afragolese0
Barletta1
Real Normanna0