Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.52 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.52Odds
2
Value bet: Barletta to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPaganese to win ✗45% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.27
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.79
Paganese vs Barletta preview and prediction
The match
Paganese host Barletta in the Serie D Girone H on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadio Marcello Torre.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for Paganese and 0.9 for Barletta. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Barletta to win at 3.40 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.52. Predicted score: Paganese 1–0 Barletta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paganese45%fair 2.22 · @2.04
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @2.95
Barletta32%fair 3.10 · @3.40
2.06Expected goals
1.15Paganese xG
0.91Barletta xG
43%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–113%
0–013%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Paganese 1.2 – 0.9 Barletta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paganese to win✗
45%
2.22
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.27
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.52
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paganese / FT Paganese✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.79
–
Form
Paganese – last 2
DW
22 Feb
@ Sarnese
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Pompei
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Barletta – last 2
WW
22 Feb
vs Afragolese
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Ferrandina
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paganese and Barletta.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.52.
Who will win Paganese vs Barletta?
On our numbers Paganese have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Barletta 32%.
How many goals will there be in Paganese vs Barletta?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paganese vs Barletta?
Our predicted score is Paganese 1–0 Barletta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Paganese vs Barletta?
Paganese vs Barletta (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Marcello Torre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Nola 19251
Francavilla2
Real Normanna1
Manfredonia0
Città di Fasano1
Sarnese1
Martina Franca1
Ferrandina0