Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Notaresco or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Notaresco to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNotaresco to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceNotaresco or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.52
Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone F sees Notaresco take on Vigor Senigallia on Sunday 15 February, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini. Notaresco are 8th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Vigor Senigallia sit 5th on 19 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Notaresco and 0.6 for Vigor Senigallia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Notaresco to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Notaresco or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Notaresco 1–0 Vigor Senigallia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Notaresco61%fair 1.63 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.00
Vigor Senigallia17%fair 5.73 · @3.60
2.12Expected goals
1.50Notaresco xG
0.61Vigor Senigallia xG
39%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Notaresco 1.5 – 0.6 Vigor Senigallia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Notaresco to win✗
61%
1.63
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Notaresco or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Notaresco / FT Notaresco✗
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.52
–
Form
Notaresco
No recent results on record.
Vigor Senigallia
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Notaresco and Vigor Senigallia.
What is the prediction for Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia?
Our pick is Notaresco or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia?
On our numbers Notaresco have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Vigor Senigallia 17%.
How many goals will there be in Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia?
Our predicted score is Notaresco 1–0 Vigor Senigallia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia?
Notaresco vs Vigor Senigallia (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chieti1
Sammaurese2
Sora2
Castelfidardo Calcio1
Ostia Mare4