Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Prato to win @ 1.83 – our chance 61% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPrato to win ✓61% · @1.83
Double chancePrato or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 6.91
Prato vs Grosseto preview and prediction
The match
Grosseto travel to Stadio Lungobisenzio in the Serie D Girone E on Sunday 19 April (14:00 WAT) to face Prato.
Form guide
Prato's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Seravezza 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Grosseto's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Robur Siena 1–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Prato and 0.8 for Grosseto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 43%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Prato 61%, draw 19%, Grosseto 19%.
Safer route: Prato or draw (81%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Prato to win at 1.83 – 61% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Prato or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Prato 1–0 Grosseto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Prato61%fair 1.63 · @1.83
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @3.40
Grosseto19%fair 5.22 · @3.70
2.45Expected goals
1.68Prato xG
0.77Grosseto xG
43%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Prato 1.7 – 0.8 Grosseto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Prato to win✓
61%
1.63
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Prato or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Prato / FT Prato✓
37%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
6.91
–
Form
Prato – last 5
WWDWD
2 Apr
vs Seravezza
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs San Donato Tavarnelle
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Robur Siena
3–3
D
22 Feb
vs Terranuova Traiana
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Sansepolcro
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Grosseto – last 6
DWDWLW
2 Apr
@ Robur Siena
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Terranuova Traiana
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Scandicci
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Poggibonsi
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Orvietana Calcio
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Tau Altopascio
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Prato and Grosseto.
Our pick is Prato or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Prato vs Grosseto?
On our numbers Prato have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Grosseto 19%.
How many goals will there be in Prato vs Grosseto?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Prato vs Grosseto?
Our predicted score is Prato 1–0 Grosseto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Prato vs Grosseto?
Prato vs Grosseto (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Lungobisenzio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Foligno Calcio0
Orvietana Calcio1
Sansepolcro1
Sporting Trestina1