Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultUSD Casatese to win ✓61% · @1.70
Double chanceUSD Casatese or draw ✓81% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 6.94
USD Casatese vs Pavia preview and prediction
The match
USD Casatese host Pavia in the Serie D Girone B on Sunday 19 April, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Campo Sportivo Comunale.
Form guide
USD Casatese's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Castellanzese 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Pavia's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Leon Monza e Brianza 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pavia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for USD Casatese and 0.8 for Pavia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 43%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was USD Casatese to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: USD Casatese 1–0 Pavia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USD Casatese61%fair 1.64 · @1.70
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.50
Pavia19%fair 5.18 · @4.20
2.45Expected goals
1.68USD Casatese xG
0.78Pavia xG
43%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: USD Casatese 1.7 – 0.8 Pavia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
USD Casatese to win✓
61%
1.64
1.70
Double chance
USD Casatese or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT USD Casatese / FT USD Casatese✓
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
6.94
–
Form
USD Casatese – last 6
WWLLDD
2 Apr
vs Castellanzese
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Villa Valle
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Varesina
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Sondrio
1–3
L
1 Mar
vs Brusaporto
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Folgore Caratese
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Pavia – last 6
LWDDWW
2 Apr
@ Leon Monza e Brianza
1–3
L
22 Mar
vs Castellanzese
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Villa Valle
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Varesina
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Sondrio
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Brusaporto
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USD Casatese and Pavia.
Our pick is USD Casatese to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win USD Casatese vs Pavia?
On our numbers USD Casatese have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Pavia 19%.
How many goals will there be in USD Casatese vs Pavia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USD Casatese vs Pavia?
Our predicted score is USD Casatese 1–0 Pavia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is USD Casatese vs Pavia?
USD Casatese vs Pavia (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Sportivo Comunale.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Caldiero Terme1
Villa Valle1
Chievo2
Castellanzese2
Milan II0
Varesina1