Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.69
Pavia vs Castellanzese preview and prediction
The match
Pavia host Castellanzese in the Serie D Girone B on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Stadio Pietro Fortunati.
Form guide
Pavia's last 4: DDWW Most recently they drew with Villa Valle 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Castellanzese's last 4: DWLW Most recently they drew with Varesina 2–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Pavia and 1.3 for Castellanzese. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 46%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 56% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Pavia 1–1 Castellanzese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pavia35%fair 2.90 · @2.80
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.20
Castellanzese44%fair 2.29 · @2.25
2.43Expected goals
1.12Pavia xG
1.31Castellanzese xG
46%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Pavia 1.1 – 1.3 Castellanzese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellanzese to win✗
44%
2.29
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellanzese / FT Castellanzese✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.69
–
Form
Pavia – last 4
DDWW
15 Mar
@ Villa Valle
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Varesina
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Sondrio
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Brusaporto
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Castellanzese – last 4
DWLW
18 Mar
@ Varesina
2–2
D
1 Mar
vs Vogherese
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Brusaporto
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Villa Valle
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pavia and Castellanzese.
What is the prediction for Pavia vs Castellanzese?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Pavia vs Castellanzese?
On our numbers Pavia have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Castellanzese 44%.
How many goals will there be in Pavia vs Castellanzese?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pavia vs Castellanzese?
Our predicted score is Pavia 1–1 Castellanzese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Pavia vs Castellanzese?
Pavia vs Castellanzese (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pietro Fortunati.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Milan II2
Sondrio2
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo2
Brusaporto1
USD Casatese0
Varesina1
Caldiero Terme3
Real Calepina1
Leon Monza e Brianza3
Vogherese2