Value bet: Real Calepina to win @ 4.20 – our chance 29% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaldiero Terme to win ✓44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.33
Caldiero Terme vs Real Calepina preview and prediction
The match
Caldiero Terme host Real Calepina in the Serie D Girone B on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini. Caldiero Terme are 6th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Real Calepina sit 11th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Caldiero Terme's last 4: DLLL Most recently they drew with Breno 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Real Calepina's last 4: WWLL Most recently they beat Chievo 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Real Calepina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Caldiero Terme and 1.1 for Real Calepina. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caldiero Terme 44%, draw 27%, Real Calepina 29%.
Value angle: Real Calepina to win at 4.20 – 29% on our numbers against 24% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Caldiero Terme 1–1 Real Calepina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caldiero Terme44%fair 2.27 · @2.10
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @2.45
Real Calepina29%fair 3.43 · @4.20
2.44Expected goals
1.37Caldiero Terme xG
1.06Real Calepina xG
47%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–09%
2–08%
From our goals model: Caldiero Terme 1.4 – 1.1 Real Calepina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caldiero Terme to win✓
44%
2.27
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caldiero Terme / FT Caldiero Terme✓
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.33
–
Form
Caldiero Terme – last 4
DLLL
15 Mar
@ Breno
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Oltrepò
2–4
L
22 Feb
vs Milan II
0–3
L
15 Feb
@ Scanzorosciate
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Real Calepina – last 4
WWLL
15 Mar
vs Chievo
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Leon Monza e Brianza
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ USD Casatese
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caldiero Terme and Real Calepina.
What is the prediction for Caldiero Terme vs Real Calepina?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Caldiero Terme vs Real Calepina?
On our numbers Caldiero Terme have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Real Calepina 29%.
How many goals will there be in Caldiero Terme vs Real Calepina?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caldiero Terme vs Real Calepina?
Our predicted score is Caldiero Terme 1–1 Real Calepina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Caldiero Terme vs Real Calepina?
Caldiero Terme vs Real Calepina (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sondrio2
USD Casatese0
Varesina1
Vogherese2
Pavia1
Castellanzese0