Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLigorna to win ✗67% · @1.67
Double chanceLigorna or draw ✗89% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.19
Valenzana vs Ligorna preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone A sees Valenzana take on Ligorna on Sunday 29 March, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Comunale. Valenzana are 17th with 6 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Ligorna sit 5th on 18 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Valenzana's last 4: LWLL Most recently they lost to Vado 1–6 away. They average 1.3 scored and 3.3 conceded.
Ligorna's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Lavagnese 2–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Ligorna arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.6 for Valenzana and 1.8 for Ligorna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 40%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Ligorna to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Valenzana 0–1 Ligorna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valenzana11%fair 8.86 · @4.50
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.40
Ligorna67%fair 1.49 · @1.67
2.43Expected goals
0.60Valenzana xG
1.83Ligorna xG
40%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–215%
1–110%
0–39%
0–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Valenzana 0.6 – 1.8 Ligorna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ligorna to win✗
67%
1.49
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Ligorna or draw✗
89%
1.13
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Ligorna ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ligorna / FT Ligorna✗
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.19
–
Form
Valenzana – last 4
LWLL
22 Mar
@ Vado
1–6
L
1 Mar
@ Club Milano
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs Saluzzo
1–4
L
15 Feb
@ Imperia
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
3.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Ligorna – last 5
WDLWW
22 Mar
vs Lavagnese
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Vado
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Gozzano
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Club Milano
5–1
W
15 Feb
@ Città di Varese
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valenzana and Ligorna.
Our pick is Ligorna to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Valenzana vs Ligorna?
On our numbers Valenzana have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ligorna 67%.
How many goals will there be in Valenzana vs Ligorna?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valenzana vs Ligorna?
Our predicted score is Valenzana 0–1 Ligorna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Valenzana vs Ligorna?
Valenzana vs Ligorna (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Città di Varese0
Cairese2
Vado1