Value bet: Biellese to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBiellese to win ✓41% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.17
Derthona vs Biellese preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone A sees Derthona take on Biellese on Sunday 1 March, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at Stadio Fausto Coppi. Derthona are 4th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Biellese sit 3rd on 21 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Derthona and 1.3 for Biellese. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 60%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Biellese to win at 2.70 – 41% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: Derthona 1–1 Biellese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derthona35%fair 2.82 · @2.28
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.15
Biellese41%fair 2.46 · @2.70
2.47Expected goals
1.18Derthona xG
1.29Biellese xG
60%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Derthona 1.2 – 1.3 Biellese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Biellese to win✓
41%
2.46
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.24
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.27
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Biellese / FT Biellese✓
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.17
–
Form
Derthona – last 2
WL
22 Feb
@ Lavagnese
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Chisola
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Biellese – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Asti
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Sanremese
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derthona and Biellese.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Derthona vs Biellese?
On our numbers Derthona have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Biellese 41%.
How many goals will there be in Derthona vs Biellese?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derthona vs Biellese?
Our predicted score is Derthona 1–1 Biellese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Derthona vs Biellese?
Derthona vs Biellese (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Fausto Coppi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Club Milano1
Città di Varese1
Vado0