Value bet: Casarano to win @ 1.62 – our chance 67% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCasarano to win ✓67% · @1.62
Double chanceCasarano or draw ✓89% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.46
Casarano vs Potenza preview and prediction
The match
Casarano host Potenza in the Serie C Girone C on Monday 6 April, with kick-off at 13:30 (WAT) at Stadio Giuseppe Capozza. Casarano are 17th with 15 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Potenza sit 1st on 32 points (top of the table). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Casarano's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Giugliano 2–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Potenza's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Latina 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.1 for Casarano and 0.7 for Potenza. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Casarano 67%, draw 22%, Potenza 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Casarano to win at 1.62 – 67% on our numbers against 62% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Casarano 2–0 Potenza. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Casarano67%fair 1.49 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.50
Potenza11%fair 8.99 · @5.10
2.83Expected goals
2.08Casarano xG
0.75Potenza xG
55%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Casarano 2.1 – 0.7 Potenza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Casarano to win✓
67%
1.49
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Casarano or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.36
Half-time result
Casarano ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Casarano / FT Casarano✓
45%
2.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.46
–
Form
Casarano – last 5
WDLDL
29 Mar
vs Giugliano
2–0
W
23 Mar
@ Catania
1–1
D
9 Mar
@ SS Monopoli
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Siracusa
1–1
D
20 Feb
@ Audace Cerignola
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Potenza – last 6
LLWWLL
1 Apr
@ Latina
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Trapani 1905
1–2
L
18 Mar
vs Latina
3–1
W
8 Mar
@ Foggia
1–0
W
5 Mar
vs Cosenza
1–4
L
1 Mar
vs Benevento
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casarano and Potenza.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Casarano vs Potenza?
On our numbers Casarano have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Potenza 11%.
How many goals will there be in Casarano vs Potenza?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casarano vs Potenza?
Our predicted score is Casarano 2–0 Potenza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Casarano vs Potenza?
Casarano vs Potenza (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Giuseppe Capozza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Benevento1
Latina1