Value bet: Novara to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovara to win37% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–113% · fair 7.70
Renate vs Novara preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone A sees Renate take on Novara on Saturday 28 March, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Mino Favini. Renate are 17th with 11 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Novara sit 14th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Renate's last 3: DWL Most recently they drew with Virtus Verona 2–2 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Novara's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Alcione 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Novara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Renate and 1.1 for Novara. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Renate 37%, draw 26%, Novara 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Novara to win at 2.90 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.00. Predicted score: Renate 1–1 Novara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Renate37%fair 2.72 · @2.38
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @2.80
Novara37%fair 2.68 · @2.90
2.09Expected goals
1.04Renate xG
1.05Novara xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–114%
0–113%
1–013%
0–012%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Renate 1.0 – 1.1 Novara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novara to win
37%
2.68
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.96
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
21%
4.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
13%
7.70
–
Form
Renate – last 3
DWL
15 Mar
@ Virtus Verona
2–2
D
3 Mar
@ Lecco
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Cittadella
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Novara – last 6
WDWDWW
22 Mar
vs Alcione
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Lecco
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Virtus Verona
2–0
W
27 Feb
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Giana Erminio
3–1
W
15 Feb
@ Triestina
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Renate and Novara.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Renate vs Novara?
On our numbers Renate have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Novara 37%.
How many goals will there be in Renate vs Novara?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Renate vs Novara?
Our predicted score is Renate 1–1 Novara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Renate vs Novara?
Renate vs Novara (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Mino Favini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Triestina
Virtus Verona
Pro Patria