Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Lorca Deportiva or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Lorca Deportiva to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLorca Deportiva to win ✓63% · @1.95
Double chanceLorca Deportiva or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓18% · fair 5.52
Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo preview and prediction
The match
Lorca Deportiva host Xerez Deportivo in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco.
Form guide
Xerez Deportivo's last 4: DLDD Most recently they drew with Antoniano 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Lorca Deportiva and 0.6 for Xerez Deportivo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Safer route: Lorca Deportiva or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Lorca Deportiva to win at 1.95 – 63% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lorca Deportiva or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Xerez Deportivo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lorca Deportiva63%fair 1.58 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @2.88
Xerez Deportivo14%fair 7.07 · @4.00
2.18Expected goals
1.60Lorca Deportiva xG
0.58Xerez Deportivo xG
47%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Lorca Deportiva 1.6 – 0.6 Xerez Deportivo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorca Deportiva to win✓
63%
1.58
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Lorca Deportiva or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lorca Deportiva / FT Lorca Deportiva✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
18%
5.52
–
Form
Lorca Deportiva – last 2
LW
1 Mar
@ Extremadura 1924
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs Antoniano
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Xerez Deportivo – last 4
DLDD
1 Mar
@ Antoniano
0–0
D
25 Feb
vs Real Jaén
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Extremadura 1924
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Puente Genil
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorca Deportiva and Xerez Deportivo.
What is the prediction for Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo?
Our pick is Lorca Deportiva or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo?
On our numbers Lorca Deportiva have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Xerez Deportivo 14%.
How many goals will there be in Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo?
Our predicted score is Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Xerez Deportivo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo?
Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Almería II2
Extremadura 19242
Estepona3
La Unión Atlético2
Deportiva Minera3
Málaga II2
Melilla1
Antoniano1
Yeclano1
Ucam Murcia1
Xerez1
Recreativo Huelva0
Águilas3
Puente Genil1