Both teams scoreNot both teams to score53% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–018% · fair 5.41
UD Ourense vs Lealtad preview and prediction
The match
UD Ourense host Lealtad in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 19 April, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Estadio O Couto.
Form guide
UD Ourense's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Deportivo La Coruña II 0–3 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lealtad's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Burgos Promesas 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
UD Ourense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.7 for UD Ourense and 0.5 for Lealtad. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: UD Ourense 67%, draw 22%, Lealtad 11%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was UD Ourense to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: UD Ourense 1–0 Lealtad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UD Ourense67%fair 1.48 · @1.36
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @4.00
Lealtad11%fair 9.20 · @8.50
2.23Expected goals
1.72UD Ourense xG
0.51Lealtad xG
47%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–016%
0–011%
1–19%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: UD Ourense 1.7 – 0.5 Lealtad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UD Ourense to win
67%
1.48
1.36
Double chance
UD Ourense or draw
89%
1.12
1.06
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
53%
1.90
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
81%
1.23
–
Half-time result
UD Ourense ahead at half-time
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UD Ourense / FT UD Ourense
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
18%
5.41
–
Form
UD Ourense – last 6
LWDWLW
12 Apr
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
0–3
L
5 Apr
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Marino de Luanco
0–0
D
22 Mar
vs Sámano
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Langreo
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Real Oviedo II
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lealtad – last 6
LLLWLL
29 Mar
vs Burgos Promesas
0–2
L
22 Mar
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–3
L
15 Mar
@ Bergantiños
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Racing Santander II
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Real Oviedo II
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UD Ourense and Lealtad.
Our pick is UD Ourense to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win UD Ourense vs Lealtad?
On our numbers UD Ourense have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lealtad 11%.
How many goals will there be in UD Ourense vs Lealtad?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UD Ourense vs Lealtad?
Our predicted score is UD Ourense 1–0 Lealtad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is UD Ourense vs Lealtad?
UD Ourense vs Lealtad (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio O Couto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Real Valladolid II3
Langreo0
Real Ávila2
Gimnástica Segoviana1
Salamanca UDS0
Deportivo La Coruña II1
Sámano0
Numancia3
Coruxo2
Racing Santander II0
Sarriana0
Marino de Luanco0