Value bet: UD Ourense to win @ 2.80 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUD Ourense to win ✗39% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.60
Marino de Luanco vs UD Ourense preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 1 sees Marino de Luanco take on UD Ourense on Sunday 29 March, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Estadi Municipal de Miramar.
Form guide
Marino de Luanco's last 4: DLDD Most recently they drew with Burgos Promesas 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
UD Ourense's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Sámano 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.9 for Marino de Luanco and 1.0 for UD Ourense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marino de Luanco 33%, draw 27%, UD Ourense 39%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.57.
Value angle: UD Ourense to win at 2.80 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Marino de Luanco 0–0 UD Ourense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marino de Luanco33%fair 3.00 · @2.70
Draw27%fair 3.64 · @2.62
UD Ourense39%fair 2.56 · @2.80
1.88Expected goals
0.89Marino de Luanco xG
0.99UD Ourense xG
47%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–015%
0–115%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Marino de Luanco 0.9 – 1.0 UD Ourense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UD Ourense to win✗
39%
2.56
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.38
1.44
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.60
–
Form
Marino de Luanco – last 4
DLDD
15 Mar
vs Burgos Promesas
0–0
D
4 Mar
@ Gimnástica Segoviana
2–3
L
22 Feb
@ Salamanca UDS
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
UD Ourense – last 6
WLWLDL
22 Mar
vs Sámano
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Langreo
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Real Oviedo II
3–0
W
1 Mar
@ Sarriana
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Racing Santander II
3–3
D
15 Feb
@ Numancia
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marino de Luanco and UD Ourense.
What is the prediction for Marino de Luanco vs UD Ourense?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Marino de Luanco vs UD Ourense?
On our numbers Marino de Luanco have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and UD Ourense 39%.
How many goals will there be in Marino de Luanco vs UD Ourense?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marino de Luanco vs UD Ourense?
Our predicted score is Marino de Luanco 0–0 UD Ourense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Marino de Luanco vs UD Ourense?
Marino de Luanco vs UD Ourense (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadi Municipal de Miramar.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Deportivo La Coruña II3
Gimnástica Segoviana1
Real Valladolid II2
Numancia2
Sarriana2
Lealtad0
Burgos Promesas2