Value bet: Burgos Promesas to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLealtad to win ✗43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.12
Lealtad vs Burgos Promesas preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 1 sees Lealtad take on Burgos Promesas on Sunday 29 March, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Estadio Las Callejas.
Form guide
Lealtad's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Deportivo La Coruña II 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Burgos Promesas's last 4: DWLL Most recently they drew with Marino de Luanco 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Lealtad and 1.2 for Burgos Promesas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Burgos Promesas to win at 3.40 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.84, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lealtad 1–1 Burgos Promesas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lealtad43%fair 2.33 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.00
Burgos Promesas35%fair 2.88 · @3.40
2.50Expected goals
1.34Lealtad xG
1.16Burgos Promesas xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–19%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Lealtad 1.3 – 1.2 Burgos Promesas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lealtad to win✗
43%
2.33
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lealtad / FT Lealtad✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.12
–
Form
Lealtad – last 6
LLWLLW
22 Mar
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–3
L
15 Mar
@ Bergantiños
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Racing Santander II
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Real Oviedo II
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Sámano
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Burgos Promesas – last 4
DWLL
15 Mar
@ Marino de Luanco
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Bergantiños
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Numancia
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Real Ávila
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lealtad and Burgos Promesas.
What is the prediction for Lealtad vs Burgos Promesas?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Lealtad vs Burgos Promesas?
On our numbers Lealtad have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Burgos Promesas 35%.
How many goals will there be in Lealtad vs Burgos Promesas?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lealtad vs Burgos Promesas?
Our predicted score is Lealtad 1–1 Burgos Promesas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lealtad vs Burgos Promesas?
Lealtad vs Burgos Promesas (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Las Callejas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Racing Santander II1
Real Oviedo II0
Bergantiños0
Coruxo1
Deportivo La Coruña II3
Atlético Astorga0
Gimnástica Segoviana1
Real Valladolid II2
Numancia2
Sarriana2
Marino de Luanco0
UD Ourense0