Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
2
Value bet: Zamora to win @ 2.80 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultZamora to win ✓40% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.14
Lugo vs Zamora preview and prediction
The match
Lugo host Zamora in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 13:15 (WAT) at Estadio Anxo Carro. Lugo are 1st with 28 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Zamora sit 16th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lugo's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Osasuna II 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Zamora's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Osasuna II 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Lugo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Lugo and 1.2 for Zamora. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lugo 34%, draw 25%, Zamora 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Zamora to win at 2.80 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Lugo 1–1 Zamora. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lugo34%fair 2.92 · @2.45
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.00
Zamora40%fair 2.47 · @2.80
2.28Expected goals
1.08Lugo xG
1.21Zamora xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Lugo 1.1 – 1.2 Zamora expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Zamora to win✓
40%
2.47
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Zamora / FT Zamora✗
22%
4.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.14
–
Form
Lugo – last 5
LWDWW
5 Apr
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Cacereño
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs Athletic Club II
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Guadalajara
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Zamora – last 6
WLWDLD
19 Apr
vs Osasuna II
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Unionistas de Salamanca
2–3
L
8 Mar
@ Real Avilés
2–0
W
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Athletic Club II
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Barakaldo
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugo and Zamora.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Lugo vs Zamora?
On our numbers Lugo have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Zamora 40%.
How many goals will there be in Lugo vs Zamora?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugo vs Zamora?
Our predicted score is Lugo 1–1 Zamora, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Lugo vs Zamora?
Lugo vs Zamora (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Osasuna II2
CF Talavera1
Ourense CF2
Celta de Vigo II1