Ourense CF vs Celta de Vigo II prediction & analysis
74%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.25
8/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Celta de Vigo II to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultOurense CF to win43% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–010% · fair 9.60
Ourense CF vs Celta de Vigo II preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees Ourense CF take on Celta de Vigo II on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estadio de O Couto.
Form guide
Ourense CF's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Real Madrid II 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
Celta de Vigo II's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Osasuna II 0–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Celta de Vigo II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Ourense CF and 1.2 for Celta de Vigo II. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ourense CF 43%, draw 22%, Celta de Vigo II 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Celta de Vigo II to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Ourense CF 1–1 Celta de Vigo II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ourense CF43%fair 2.30 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.25
Celta de Vigo II35%fair 2.88 · @3.25
2.59Expected goals
1.39Ourense CF xG
1.20Celta de Vigo II xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Ourense CF 1.4 – 1.2 Celta de Vigo II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ourense CF to win
43%
2.30
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.69
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.36
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ourense CF / FT Ourense CF
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
10%
9.60
–
Form
Ourense CF – last 5
DLDLL
14 Apr
@ Real Madrid II
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Real Avilés
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs Ponferradina
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Barakaldo
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Guadalajara
0–1
L
0.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Celta de Vigo II – last 6
LWLWDD
1 May
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
17 Apr
vs Cacereño
3–0
W
3 Apr
@ Real Madrid II
1–5
L
29 Mar
vs Athletic Club II
2–1
W
20 Mar
@ Arenteiro
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Tenerife
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ourense CF and Celta de Vigo II.
What is the prediction for Ourense CF vs Celta de Vigo II?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ourense CF vs Celta de Vigo II?
On our numbers Ourense CF have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Celta de Vigo II 35%.
How many goals will there be in Ourense CF vs Celta de Vigo II?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ourense CF vs Celta de Vigo II?
Our predicted score is Ourense CF 1–1 Celta de Vigo II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Ourense CF vs Celta de Vigo II?
Ourense CF vs Celta de Vigo II (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Osasuna II2
CF Talavera1
Lugo1
Zamora3