Mérida AD host Lugo in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 3 May, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto. Mérida AD are 8th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Lugo sit 1st on 28 points (top of the table). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Mérida AD's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Arenas Getxo 0–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lugo's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Osasuna II 0–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lugo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Mérida AD and 1.0 for Lugo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mérida AD 48%, draw 22%, Lugo 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Mérida AD 1–0 Lugo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mérida AD48%fair 2.07 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.20
Lugo30%fair 3.36 · @3.50
2.38Expected goals
1.38Mérida AD xG
1.00Lugo xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–09%
0–19%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Mérida AD 1.4 – 1.0 Lugo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mérida AD to win
48%
2.07
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.83
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mérida AD / FT Mérida AD
27%
3.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.83
–
Form
Mérida AD – last 5
LWDLW
24 Apr
@ Arenas Getxo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Arenteiro
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Athletic Club II
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Guadalajara
1–4
L
22 Feb
vs Cacereño
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Lugo – last 5
LWDWW
5 Apr
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Cacereño
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs Athletic Club II
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Guadalajara
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mérida AD and Lugo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Lugo?
On our numbers Mérida AD have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lugo 30%.
How many goals will there be in Mérida AD vs Lugo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mérida AD vs Lugo?
Our predicted score is Mérida AD 1–0 Lugo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Mérida AD vs Lugo?
Mérida AD vs Lugo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
Ourense CF1