Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
2
Value bet: Ponferradina to win @ 3.20 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPonferradina to win ✗38% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.53
Ourense CF vs Ponferradina preview and prediction
The match
Ourense CF host Ponferradina in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 29 March, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Estadio de O Couto.
Form guide
Ponferradina's last 3: DWW Most recently they drew with Cacereño 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Ourense CF and 1.0 for Ponferradina. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Ponferradina to win at 3.20 – 38% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Ourense CF 1–1 Ponferradina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ourense CF36%fair 2.77 · @2.33
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @2.80
Ponferradina38%fair 2.65 · @3.20
2.06Expected goals
1.02Ourense CF xG
1.05Ponferradina xG
49%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–114%
0–113%
1–013%
0–013%
1–27%
0–27%
From our goals model: Ourense CF 1.0 – 1.0 Ponferradina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ponferradina to win✗
38%
2.65
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
21%
4.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.53
–
Form
Ourense CF – last 2
LL
8 Mar
@ Barakaldo
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Guadalajara
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Ponferradina – last 3
DWW
15 Mar
@ Cacereño
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Real Madrid II
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs CF Talavera
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ourense CF and Ponferradina.
What is the prediction for Ourense CF vs Ponferradina?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Ourense CF vs Ponferradina?
On our numbers Ourense CF have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Ponferradina 38%.
How many goals will there be in Ourense CF vs Ponferradina?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ourense CF vs Ponferradina?
Our predicted score is Ourense CF 1–1 Ponferradina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Ourense CF vs Ponferradina?
Ourense CF vs Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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