Value bet: Ponferradina to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPonferradina to win ✗45% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 6.90
Cacereño vs Ponferradina preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees Cacereño take on Ponferradina on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Estadio Principe Felipe. Cacereño are 10th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Ponferradina sit 11th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Cacereño and 1.2 for Ponferradina. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Ponferradina to win at 2.45 – 45% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Cacereño 0–1 Ponferradina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cacereño31%fair 3.23 · @2.70
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @2.80
Ponferradina45%fair 2.21 · @2.45
2.11Expected goals
0.92Cacereño xG
1.19Ponferradina xG
50%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Cacereño 0.9 – 1.2 Ponferradina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ponferradina to win✗
45%
2.21
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ponferradina / FT Ponferradina✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
6.90
–
Form
Cacereño – last 1
L
22 Feb
@ Mérida AD
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Ponferradina – last 2
WW
1 Mar
@ Real Madrid II
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs CF Talavera
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cacereño and Ponferradina.
What is the prediction for Cacereño vs Ponferradina?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Cacereño vs Ponferradina?
On our numbers Cacereño have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ponferradina 45%.
How many goals will there be in Cacereño vs Ponferradina?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cacereño vs Ponferradina?
Our predicted score is Cacereño 0–1 Ponferradina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Cacereño vs Ponferradina?
Cacereño vs Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Principe Felipe.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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