Value bet: Ponferradina to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Madrid II to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.27
Real Madrid II vs Ponferradina preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees Real Madrid II take on Ponferradina on Sunday 1 March, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Real Madrid II and 1.1 for Ponferradina. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Madrid II 45%, draw 22%, Ponferradina 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Ponferradina to win at 3.40 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Real Madrid II 1–1 Ponferradina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Madrid II45%fair 2.23 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.20
Ponferradina33%fair 3.02 · @3.40
2.38Expected goals
1.31Real Madrid II xG
1.07Ponferradina xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Real Madrid II 1.3 – 1.1 Ponferradina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid II to win✗
45%
2.23
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid II / FT Real Madrid II✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.27
–
Form
Real Madrid II – last 1
W
13 Feb
vs Athletic Club II
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Ponferradina – last 1
W
20 Feb
vs CF Talavera
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Madrid II and Ponferradina.
What is the prediction for Real Madrid II vs Ponferradina?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Real Madrid II vs Ponferradina?
On our numbers Real Madrid II have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ponferradina 33%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid II vs Ponferradina?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid II vs Ponferradina?
Our predicted score is Real Madrid II 1–1 Ponferradina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Real Madrid II vs Ponferradina?
Real Madrid II vs Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
