Value bet: Cacereño to win @ 3.35 – our chance 35% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMérida AD to win ✓43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 8.70
Mérida AD vs Cacereño preview and prediction
The match
Cacereño travel to Estadio Romano Jose Fouto in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 22 February (16:00 WAT) to face Mérida AD. Mérida AD are 8th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Cacereño sit 10th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Mérida AD and 1.1 for Cacereño. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mérida AD 43%, draw 22%, Cacereño 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Cacereño to win at 3.35 – 35% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Mérida AD 1–1 Cacereño. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mérida AD43%fair 2.32 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.10
Cacereño35%fair 2.90 · @3.35
2.43Expected goals
1.30Mérida AD xG
1.12Cacereño xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Mérida AD 1.3 – 1.1 Cacereño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mérida AD to win✓
43%
2.32
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mérida AD / FT Mérida AD✓
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
8.70
–
Form
Mérida AD
No recent results on record.
Cacereño
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mérida AD and Cacereño.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
On our numbers Mérida AD have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cacereño 35%.
How many goals will there be in Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
Our predicted score is Mérida AD 1–1 Cacereño, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Mérida AD vs Cacereño?
Mérida AD vs Cacereño (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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