Value bet: Atlético Madrid II to win @ 3.45 – our chance 38% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtlético Madrid II to win ✗38% · @3.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.99
Real Murcia vs Atlético Madrid II preview and prediction
The match
Real Murcia host Atlético Madrid II in the Primera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 17:15 (WAT) at Estadio Enrique Roca. Real Murcia are 3rd with 20 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Atlético Madrid II sit 15th on 11 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Real Murcia's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Sevilla Atletico 1–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Atlético Madrid II's last 4: WDLW Most recently they beat Tarazona 4–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Atlético Madrid II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Real Murcia and 1.1 for Atlético Madrid II. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Murcia 36%, draw 26%, Atlético Madrid II 38%.
Value angle: Atlético Madrid II to win at 3.45 – 38% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Either team to win – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Real Murcia 0–1 Atlético Madrid II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Murcia36%fair 2.75 · @2.20
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @2.80
Atlético Madrid II38%fair 2.67 · @3.45
2.17Expected goals
1.07Real Murcia xG
1.10Atlético Madrid II xG
44%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Real Murcia 1.1 – 1.1 Atlético Madrid II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atlético Madrid II to win✗
38%
2.67
3.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atlético Madrid II / FT Atlético Madrid II✗
20%
4.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.99
–
Form
Real Murcia – last 6
WLDLLL
29 Mar
@ Sevilla Atletico
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Hércules
0–2
L
11 Mar
vs Marbella
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Sanluqueño
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs FC Cartagena
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Alcorcon
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Atlético Madrid II – last 4
WDLW
15 Mar
@ Tarazona
4–1
W
8 Mar
vs Hércules
0–0
D
21 Feb
vs Gimnastic
1–2
L
13 Feb
@ Sanluqueño
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Murcia and Atlético Madrid II.
What is the prediction for Real Murcia vs Atlético Madrid II?
Our pick is Either team to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Real Murcia vs Atlético Madrid II?
On our numbers Real Murcia have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atlético Madrid II 38%.
How many goals will there be in Real Murcia vs Atlético Madrid II?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Murcia vs Atlético Madrid II?
Our predicted score is Real Murcia 0–1 Atlético Madrid II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Real Murcia vs Atlético Madrid II?
Real Murcia vs Atlético Madrid II (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Enrique Roca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sabadell1
Real Betis II3