Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Hércules to win @ 3.70 – our chance 32% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlcorcon to win ✓45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.13
Alcorcon vs Hércules preview and prediction
The match
Hércules travel to Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo in the Primera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 5 April (11:00 WAT) to face Alcorcon. Alcorcon are 5th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Hércules sit 7th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Alcorcon's last 4: DLDW Most recently they drew with Algeciras 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Hércules's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Marbella 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Alcorcon and 0.9 for Hércules. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Hércules to win at 3.70 – 32% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Alcorcon 1–1 Hércules. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alcorcon45%fair 2.23 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.95
Hércules32%fair 3.16 · @3.70
2.15Expected goals
1.21Alcorcon xG
0.95Hércules xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Alcorcon 1.2 – 0.9 Hércules expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcorcon to win✓
45%
2.23
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.94
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcorcon / FT Alcorcon✓
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.13
–
Form
Alcorcon – last 4
DLDW
15 Mar
vs Algeciras
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Juventud Torremolinos
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Eldense
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Real Murcia
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Hércules – last 6
WLWDDL
29 Mar
vs Marbella
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Real Betis II
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Real Murcia
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Atlético Madrid II
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Juventud Torremolinos
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Antequera
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcorcon and Hércules.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Alcorcon vs Hércules?
On our numbers Alcorcon have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Hércules 32%.
How many goals will there be in Alcorcon vs Hércules?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcorcon vs Hércules?
Our predicted score is Alcorcon 1–1 Hércules, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Alcorcon vs Hércules?
Alcorcon vs Hércules (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sabadell1
Real Betis II3