Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Gimnastic to win @ 3.70 – our chance 34% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlgeciras to win ✓41% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓12% · fair 8.02
Algeciras vs Gimnastic preview and prediction
The match
Gimnastic travel to Estadio Nuevo Mirador in the Primera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 22 March (12:00 WAT) to face Algeciras. Algeciras are 13th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Gimnastic sit 11th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Algeciras's last 4: DLDL Most recently they drew with Alcorcon 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gimnastic's last 3: DLW Most recently they drew with Sabadell 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Gimnastic arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Algeciras and 1.1 for Gimnastic. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Gimnastic to win at 3.70 – 34% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Algeciras 1–1 Gimnastic. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Algeciras41%fair 2.46 · @2.05
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @2.95
Gimnastic34%fair 2.96 · @3.70
2.27Expected goals
1.20Algeciras xG
1.06Gimnastic xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Algeciras 1.2 – 1.1 Gimnastic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Algeciras to win✓
41%
2.46
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Algeciras / FT Algeciras✓
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
12%
8.02
–
Form
Algeciras – last 4
DLDL
15 Mar
@ Alcorcon
0–0
D
11 Mar
@ Antequera
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Teruel
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Marbella
1–4
L
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Gimnastic – last 3
DLW
13 Mar
vs Sabadell
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Antequera
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Atlético Madrid II
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Algeciras and Gimnastic.
What is the prediction for Algeciras vs Gimnastic?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Algeciras vs Gimnastic?
On our numbers Algeciras have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gimnastic 34%.
How many goals will there be in Algeciras vs Gimnastic?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Algeciras vs Gimnastic?
Our predicted score is Algeciras 1–1 Gimnastic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Algeciras vs Gimnastic?
Algeciras vs Gimnastic (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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