Value bet: Alcorcon to win @ 3.70 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEldense to win ✗45% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗69% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.24
Eldense vs Alcorcon preview and prediction
The match
Alcorcon travel to Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat in the Primera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 22 February (20:30 WAT) to face Eldense.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.1 for Eldense and 0.8 for Alcorcon. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Eldense 45%, draw 25%, Alcorcon 30%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Alcorcon to win at 3.70 – 30% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Eldense 1–0 Alcorcon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Eldense45%fair 2.24 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @2.75
Alcorcon30%fair 3.29 · @3.70
1.92Expected goals
1.09Eldense xG
0.83Alcorcon xG
46%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–015%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Eldense 1.1 – 0.8 Alcorcon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Eldense to win✗
45%
2.24
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Eldense / FT Eldense✗
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.24
–
Form
Eldense
No recent results on record.
Alcorcon – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Real Murcia
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Eldense and Alcorcon.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Eldense vs Alcorcon?
On our numbers Eldense have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alcorcon 30%.
How many goals will there be in Eldense vs Alcorcon?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Eldense vs Alcorcon?
Our predicted score is Eldense 1–0 Alcorcon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Eldense vs Alcorcon?
Eldense vs Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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