Value bet: Bourg-en-bresse 01 to win @ 3.35 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAubagne to win ✓42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 8.70
Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 preview and prediction
The match
Aubagne host Bourg-en-bresse 01 in the National 1 on Friday 13 February, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny. Aubagne are 17th with 7 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Bourg-en-bresse 01 sit 18th on 6 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Aubagne and 1.1 for Bourg-en-bresse 01. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Bourg-en-bresse 01 to win at 3.35 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Aubagne 1–1 Bourg-en-bresse 01. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aubagne42%fair 2.41 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Bourg-en-bresse 0134%fair 2.93 · @3.35
2.41Expected goals
1.28Aubagne xG
1.13Bourg-en-bresse 01 xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Aubagne 1.3 – 1.1 Bourg-en-bresse 01 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aubagne to win✓
42%
2.41
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aubagne / FT Aubagne✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
8.70
–
Form
Aubagne
No recent results on record.
Bourg-en-bresse 01
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aubagne and Bourg-en-bresse 01.
What is the prediction for Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01?
On our numbers Aubagne have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bourg-en-bresse 01 34%.
How many goals will there be in Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01?
Our predicted score is Aubagne 1–1 Bourg-en-bresse 01, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01?
Aubagne vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 (National 1) kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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