Value bet: Spezia to win @ 2.48 – our chance 48% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpezia to win ✗48% · @2.48
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.98
Spezia vs Empoli preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Spezia take on Empoli on Tuesday 17 March, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadio Alberto Picco.
Form guide
Spezia's last 4: LDWL Most recently they lost to Modena 0–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Empoli's last 4: LLDD Most recently they lost to Catanzaro 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Spezia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Spezia and 0.9 for Empoli. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Spezia 48%, draw 24%, Empoli 28%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Spezia to win at 2.48 – 48% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Spezia 1–0 Empoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spezia48%fair 2.08 · @2.48
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @2.95
Empoli28%fair 3.63 · @3.05
2.61Expected goals
1.70Spezia xG
0.91Empoli xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Spezia 1.7 – 0.9 Empoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spezia to win✗
48%
2.08
2.48 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spezia / FT Spezia✗
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.98
–
Form
Spezia – last 4
LDWL
13 Mar
@ Modena
0–3
L
3 Mar
@ Padova
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Cesena
3–2
W
15 Feb
vs Frosinone
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Empoli – last 4
LLDD
8 Mar
@ Catanzaro
2–3
L
4 Mar
@ Bari
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Frosinone
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Reggiana
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spezia and Empoli.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Spezia vs Empoli?
On our numbers Spezia have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Empoli 28%.
How many goals will there be in Spezia vs Empoli?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spezia vs Empoli?
Our predicted score is Spezia 1–0 Empoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Spezia vs Empoli?
Spezia vs Empoli (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Alberto Picco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Venezia3
Reggiana0
Monza0