Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultVirtus to win ✓70% · @1.17
Double chanceVirtus or draw ✓86% · @1.02
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 8.94
Libertas vs Virtus preview and prediction
The match
Virtus travel to Campo Sportivo di Borgo Maggiore in the Campionato on Sunday 26 April (14:00 WAT) to face Libertas. Libertas are 9th with 9 points from 8 games (in the bottom half), while Virtus sit 3rd on 19 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Libertas's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Tre Penne 1–3 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Virtus's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Cailungo 6–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 0.9 for Libertas and 2.3 for Virtus. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 47% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Libertas 14%, draw 16%, Virtus 70%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Libertas 1–2 Virtus. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertas14%fair 7.31 · @11.00
Draw16%fair 6.31 · @6.50
Virtus70%fair 1.42 · @1.17
3.15Expected goals
0.86Libertas xG
2.29Virtus xG
47%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–110%
1–210%
0–39%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: Libertas 0.9 – 2.3 Virtus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Virtus to win✓
70%
1.42
1.17
Double chance
Virtus or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.02
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Virtus ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Virtus / FT Virtus✓
46%
2.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
8.94
–
Form
Libertas – last 6
LWWLDW
19 Apr
vs Tre Penne
1–3
L
8 Apr
vs Juvenes Dogana
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Cosmos
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Folgore
2–4
L
21 Feb
@ La Fiorita
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Faetano
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Virtus – last 6
WDWLWD
19 Apr
@ Cailungo
6–1
W
8 Apr
@ Tre Penne
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Domagnano
3–2
W
18 Mar
@ Tre Fiori
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Juvenes Dogana
2–0
W
4 Mar
vs Tre Fiori
0–0
D
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertas and Virtus.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Libertas vs Virtus?
On our numbers Libertas have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Virtus 70%.
How many goals will there be in Libertas vs Virtus?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertas vs Virtus?
Our predicted score is Libertas 1–2 Virtus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Libertas vs Virtus?
Libertas vs Virtus (Campionato) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Sportivo di Borgo Maggiore.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
