Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Camacha to win @ 1.90 – our chance 64% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCamacha to win ✓64% · @1.90
Double chanceCamacha or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.64
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.80
Camacha vs Machico preview and prediction
The match
Camacha host Machico in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Complexo Desportivo da Camacha.
Form guide
Camacha's last 5: LWDDD Most recently they lost to Brito 2–4 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Machico's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Bragança 2–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Machico arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Camacha and 0.6 for Machico. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 39%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Camacha 64%, draw 22%, Machico 14%.
Safer route: Camacha or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Camacha to win at 1.90 – 64% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Camacha or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Camacha 1–0 Machico. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Camacha64%fair 1.57 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.10
Machico14%fair 7.07 · @3.70
2.26Expected goals
1.65Camacha xG
0.61Machico xG
39%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Camacha 1.7 – 0.6 Machico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Camacha to win✓
64%
1.57
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Camacha or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Camacha / FT Camacha✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.80
–
Form
Camacha – last 5
LWDDD
15 Mar
@ Brito
2–4
L
8 Mar
vs AR São Martinho
3–0
W
1 Mar
@ Vianense
0–0
D
21 Feb
vs Tirsense
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Chaves II
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Machico – last 5
WWWLD
15 Mar
vs Bragança
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Brito
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ AR São Martinho
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Vianense
2–3
L
15 Feb
@ Tirsense
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Camacha and Machico.
Our pick is Camacha or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Camacha vs Machico?
On our numbers Camacha have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Machico 14%.
How many goals will there be in Camacha vs Machico?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Camacha vs Machico?
Our predicted score is Camacha 1–0 Machico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Camacha vs Machico?
Camacha vs Machico (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Complexo Desportivo da Camacha.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Bragança4
Os Limianos1
Vilaverdense0
Brito2
Monção1
Chaves II4
Celoricense0
AR São Martinho0
Ribeira Brava1
Vianense5
Mirandela0
Tirsense1