Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarine to win ✗49% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.82
Marine vs Merthyr Town preview and prediction
The match
Marine host Merthyr Town in the National League North on Tuesday 14 April, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Rossett Park. Marine are 16th with 19 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Merthyr Town sit 17th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Marine's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Hereford 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Merthyr Town's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Hereford 0–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.8 for Marine and 1.4 for Merthyr Town. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marine 49%, draw 20%, Merthyr Town 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.45.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 61% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Marine 2–1 Merthyr Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marine49%fair 2.05 · @2.10
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.60
Merthyr Town31%fair 3.20 · @2.88
3.23Expected goals
1.82Marine xG
1.41Merthyr Town xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–07%
1–27%
2–07%
2–27%
From our goals model: Marine 1.8 – 1.4 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marine to win✗
49%
2.05
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marine / FT Marine✗
29%
3.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.82
–
Form
Marine – last 6
LWLLDL
8 Apr
vs Hereford
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Chorley
2–1
W
3 Apr
@ Southport
1–2
L
31 Mar
@ AFC Fylde
0–2
L
17 Mar
@ Peterborough Sports
0–0
D
10 Mar
vs Macclesfield
2–4
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Merthyr Town – last 5
LDLWL
6 Apr
@ Hereford
0–3
L
3 Apr
vs Oxford City
1–1
D
10 Mar
vs Chester
1–2
L
24 Feb
@ Leamington
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Alfreton Town
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marine and Merthyr Town.
What is the prediction for Marine vs Merthyr Town?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Marine vs Merthyr Town?
On our numbers Marine have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Merthyr Town 31%.
How many goals will there be in Marine vs Merthyr Town?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marine vs Merthyr Town?
Our predicted score is Marine 2–1 Merthyr Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Marine vs Merthyr Town?
Marine vs Merthyr Town (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Rossett Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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