Value bet: Buxton to win @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBuxton to win ✗62% · @1.73
Double chanceBuxton or draw ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.83
Alfreton Town vs Buxton preview and prediction
The match
Buxton travel to The Impact Arena in the National League North on Tuesday 14 April (19:45 WAT) to face Alfreton Town.
Form guide
Alfreton Town's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Leamington 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Buxton's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Worksop Town 2–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for Alfreton Town and 2.0 for Buxton. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alfreton Town 17%, draw 21%, Buxton 62%.
Safer route: Buxton or draw (83%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Buxton to win at 1.73 – 62% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Alfreton Town 0–2 Buxton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alfreton Town17%fair 5.99 · @4.00
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.65
Buxton62%fair 1.61 · @1.73
2.85Expected goals
0.90Alfreton Town xG
1.95Buxton xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Alfreton Town 0.9 – 2.0 Buxton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Buxton to win✗
62%
1.61
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Buxton or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
1.40
Half-time result
Buxton ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Buxton / FT Buxton✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.83
–
Form
Alfreton Town – last 6
WDWLWL
6 Apr
@ Leamington
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Worksop Town
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs Chorley
1–0
W
24 Mar
vs Macclesfield
0–2
L
19 Mar
vs Hereford
2–1
W
17 Mar
@ Southport
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Buxton – last 6
WLWWLL
6 Apr
@ Worksop Town
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Macclesfield
2–4
L
17 Mar
@ Leamington
1–0
W
10 Mar
@ Darlington 1883
2–0
W
24 Feb
vs King's Lynn Town
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs AFC Fylde
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alfreton Town and Buxton.
What is the prediction for Alfreton Town vs Buxton?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alfreton Town vs Buxton?
On our numbers Alfreton Town have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Buxton 62%.
How many goals will there be in Alfreton Town vs Buxton?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alfreton Town vs Buxton?
Our predicted score is Alfreton Town 0–2 Buxton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alfreton Town vs Buxton?
Alfreton Town vs Buxton (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at The Impact Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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