Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 3.20 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSporting CP B to win ✗39% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.37
Sporting CP B vs Penafiel preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Sporting CP B take on Penafiel on Saturday 4 April, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira. Sporting CP B are 2nd with 22 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Penafiel sit 1st on 22 points (top of the table). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sporting CP B's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Feirense 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Penafiel's last 4: LDDW Most recently they lost to Feirense 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Sporting CP B and 1.1 for Penafiel. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sporting CP B 39%, draw 24%, Penafiel 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Penafiel to win at 3.20 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sporting CP B 1–1 Penafiel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting CP B39%fair 2.55 · @2.18
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.15
Penafiel37%fair 2.73 · @3.20
2.28Expected goals
1.17Sporting CP B xG
1.11Penafiel xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sporting CP B 1.2 – 1.1 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting CP B to win✗
39%
2.55
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting CP B / FT Sporting CP B✗
21%
4.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.37
–
Form
Sporting CP B – last 6
WLLLLW
22 Mar
@ Feirense
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Chaves
0–1
L
8 Mar
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Leixoes
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Maritimo
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Portimonense
4–3
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 4
LDDW
15 Mar
@ Feirense
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Benfica B
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting CP B and Penafiel.
What is the prediction for Sporting CP B vs Penafiel?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sporting CP B vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Sporting CP B have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penafiel 37%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting CP B vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting CP B vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Sporting CP B 1–1 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sporting CP B vs Penafiel?
Sporting CP B vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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