Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFeirense to win ✓42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.13
Feirense vs Penafiel preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Feirense take on Penafiel on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Marcolino de Castro. Feirense are 18th with 5 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Penafiel sit 1st on 22 points (top of the table). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Feirense's last 4: LDLW Most recently they lost to Benfica B 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penafiel's last 3: DDW Most recently they drew with Benfica B 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penafiel arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Feirense and 1.0 for Penafiel. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Penafiel to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.88, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Feirense 1–1 Penafiel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Feirense42%fair 2.35 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.90
Penafiel34%fair 2.94 · @3.25
2.08Expected goals
1.12Feirense xG
0.96Penafiel xG
53%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Feirense 1.1 – 1.0 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Feirense to win✓
42%
2.35
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Feirense / FT Feirense✓
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.13
–
Form
Feirense – last 4
LDLW
9 Mar
@ Benfica B
0–3
L
2 Mar
vs Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
0–1
L
14 Feb
vs Chaves
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 3
DDW
1 Mar
vs Benfica B
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Feirense and Penafiel.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Feirense vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Feirense have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penafiel 34%.
How many goals will there be in Feirense vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Feirense vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Feirense 1–1 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Feirense vs Penafiel?
Feirense vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Marcolino de Castro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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