Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
Farense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Farense to win @ 1.88 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFarense to win ✓65% · @1.88
Double chanceFarense or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.65
Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Farense take on Lusitânia Lourosa on Sunday 1 March, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Estádio de São Lúis. Farense are 8th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Lusitânia Lourosa sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Farense and 0.7 for Lusitânia Lourosa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Farense to win at 1.88 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Farense or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Farense 1–0 Lusitânia Lourosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Farense65%fair 1.54 · @1.88
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.25
Lusitânia Lourosa12%fair 8.04 · @4.00
2.50Expected goals
1.84Farense xG
0.67Lusitânia Lourosa xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Farense 1.8 – 0.7 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Farense to win✓
65%
1.54
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Farense or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Farense ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Farense / FT Farense✓
41%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.65
–
Form
Farense – last 1
L
22 Feb
@ Chaves
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Feirense
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Penafiel
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Farense and Lusitânia Lourosa.
What is the prediction for Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Farense or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Farense have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lusitânia Lourosa 12%.
How many goals will there be in Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Farense 1–0 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio de São Lúis.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Pacos Ferreira0
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