Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 3.00 – our chance 35% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBenfica B to win ✗41% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.94
Penafiel vs Benfica B preview and prediction
The match
Penafiel host Benfica B in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril. Penafiel are 1st with 22 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Benfica B sit 3rd on 20 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Penafiel and 1.3 for Benfica B. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 58%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penafiel 35%, draw 24%, Benfica B 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Penafiel to win at 3.00 – 35% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Penafiel 1–1 Benfica B. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penafiel35%fair 2.83 · @3.00
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.20
Benfica B41%fair 2.46 · @2.24
2.43Expected goals
1.16Penafiel xG
1.27Benfica B xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.2 – 1.3 Benfica B expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica B to win✗
41%
2.46
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica B / FT Benfica B✗
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.94
–
Form
Penafiel – last 2
DW
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Benfica B – last 1
L
21 Feb
@ Torreense
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and Benfica B.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Penafiel vs Benfica B?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Benfica B 41%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Benfica B?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Benfica B?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–1 Benfica B, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Benfica B?
Penafiel vs Benfica B (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Academico Viseu3
Maritimo1
Pacos Ferreira0
Oliveirense0