Value bet: Bastia to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPAU to win ✗47% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.04
PAU vs Bastia preview and prediction
The match
PAU host Bastia in the Ligue 2 on Friday 6 March, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Nouste Camp.
Form guide
Bastia's last 3: LDD Most recently they lost to Annecy 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for PAU and 1.0 for Bastia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: PAU 47%, draw 22%, Bastia 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Bastia to win at 3.50 – 31% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: PAU 1–1 Bastia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
PAU47%fair 2.11 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.30
Bastia31%fair 3.26 · @3.50
2.40Expected goals
1.37PAU xG
1.03Bastia xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–09%
From our goals model: PAU 1.4 – 1.0 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
PAU to win✗
47%
2.11
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT PAU / FT PAU✗
26%
3.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.04
–
Form
PAU – last 2
LL
21 Feb
@ Estac Troyes
3–4
L
13 Feb
vs Boulogne
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 3
LDD
27 Feb
vs Annecy
0–2
L
20 Feb
@ Dunkerque
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Estac Troyes
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between PAU and Bastia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win PAU vs Bastia?
On our numbers PAU have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bastia 31%.
How many goals will there be in PAU vs Bastia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for PAU vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is PAU 1–1 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is PAU vs Bastia?
PAU vs Bastia (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Nouste Camp.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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