Value bet: Benfica to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSporting CP to win45% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.05
Sporting CP vs Benfica preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Sporting CP take on Benfica on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estádio José Alvalade. Sporting CP are 3rd with 24 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Benfica sit 2nd on 28 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Sporting CP's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Arsenal 0–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Benfica's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with Casa Pia 1–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Sporting CP and 1.3 for Benfica. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 60%.
Value angle: Benfica to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sporting CP 1–1 Benfica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting CP45%fair 2.21 · @2.12
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.50
Benfica34%fair 2.94 · @3.20
2.92Expected goals
1.59Sporting CP xG
1.33Benfica xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Sporting CP 1.6 – 1.3 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting CP to win
45%
2.21
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
55%
1.81
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.50
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting CP / FT Sporting CP
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.05
–
Form
Sporting CP – last 6
DLWLWW
15 Apr
@ Arsenal
0–0
D
7 Apr
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
17 Mar
vs BodoGlimt
3–0
W
11 Mar
@ BodoGlimt
0–3
L
3 Mar
vs FC Porto
1–0
W
27 Feb
vs Estoril
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Benfica – last 6
DDWLLW
6 Apr
@ Casa Pia
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs FC Porto
2–2
D
2 Mar
@ GIL Vicente
2–1
W
25 Feb
@ Real Madrid
1–2
L
17 Feb
vs Real Madrid
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting CP and Benfica.
What is the prediction for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Benfica?
On our numbers Sporting CP have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Benfica 34%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is Sporting CP 1–1 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Sporting CP vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Alvalade.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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