Value bet: Estrela to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArouca to win ✓46% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.96
Arouca vs Estrela preview and prediction
The match
Arouca host Estrela in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 19 April, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Arouca are 5th with 20 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Estrela sit 12th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Arouca's last 4: WLLW Most recently they beat Estoril 3–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Estrela's last 4: WLDL Most recently they beat Casa Pia 4–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Arouca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Arouca and 1.3 for Estrela. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arouca 46%, draw 22%, Estrela 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Estrela to win at 3.40 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Arouca 1–1 Estrela. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arouca46%fair 2.20 · @2.08
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
Estrela33%fair 3.06 · @3.40
2.87Expected goals
1.58Arouca xG
1.29Estrela xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–27%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.6 – 1.3 Estrela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arouca to win✓
46%
2.20
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arouca / FT Arouca✗
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.96
–
Form
Arouca – last 4
WLLW
6 Apr
vs Estoril
3–2
W
6 Mar
@ Famalicao
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
21 Feb
vs Nacional
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Estrela – last 4
WLDL
20 Mar
vs Casa Pia
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Tondela
0–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arouca and Estrela.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Arouca vs Estrela?
On our numbers Arouca have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Estrela 33%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Estrela?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Estrela?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Estrela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Estrela?
Arouca vs Estrela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tondela