Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRio Ave to win ✓41% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.15
Rio Ave vs Estrela preview and prediction
The match
Rio Ave host Estrela in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube. Rio Ave are 17th with 7 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Estrela sit 12th on 10 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Rio Ave's last 3: WLL Most recently they beat Tondela 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Rio Ave and 1.3 for Estrela. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rio Ave 41%, draw 24%, Estrela 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Rio Ave 1–1 Estrela. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rio Ave41%fair 2.47 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.20
Estrela35%fair 2.82 · @3.00
2.78Expected goals
1.45Rio Ave xG
1.33Estrela xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Rio Ave 1.4 – 1.3 Estrela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rio Ave to win✓
41%
2.47
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rio Ave / FT Rio Ave✓
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.15
–
Form
Rio Ave – last 3
WLL
9 Mar
@ Tondela
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ FC Porto
0–1
L
16 Feb
vs Moreirense
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Estrela – last 2
DL
8 Mar
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Tondela
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rio Ave and Estrela.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Estrela?
On our numbers Rio Ave have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estrela 35%.
How many goals will there be in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rio Ave vs Estrela?
Our predicted score is Rio Ave 1–1 Estrela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Rio Ave vs Estrela?
Rio Ave vs Estrela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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