Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
2
Value bet: Estoril to win @ 2.75 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstoril to win ✓41% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.46
Nacional vs Estoril preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Nacional take on Estoril on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Estádio da Madeira. Nacional are 13th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Estoril sit 18th on 2 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Estoril's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to Sporting CP 0–3 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for Nacional and 1.6 for Estoril. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 64%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional 35%, draw 24%, Estoril 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Estoril to win at 2.75 – 41% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 64% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Nacional 1–1 Estoril. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional35%fair 2.83 · @2.40
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.30
Estoril41%fair 2.45 · @2.75
3.08Expected goals
1.48Nacional xG
1.60Estoril xG
64%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Nacional 1.5 – 1.6 Estoril expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estoril to win✓
41%
2.45
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.56
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.56
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estoril / FT Estoril✓
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.46
–
Form
Nacional – last 2
LL
21 Feb
@ Arouca
0–3
L
15 Feb
vs FC Porto
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Estoril – last 3
LWL
27 Feb
@ Sporting CP
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
15 Feb
@ AVS
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional and Estoril.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Nacional vs Estoril?
On our numbers Nacional have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estoril 41%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs Estoril?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs Estoril?
Our predicted score is Nacional 1–1 Estoril, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Nacional vs Estoril?
Nacional vs Estoril (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Madeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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