Value bet: FC Porto to win @ 3.45 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBenfica to win ✗45% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.62
Benfica vs FC Porto preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Benfica take on FC Porto on Sunday 8 March, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Benfica are 2nd with 28 points from 11 games (in the top four), while FC Porto sit 1st on 33 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Benfica's last 4: WLLW Most recently they beat GIL Vicente 2–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
FC Porto's last 4: LWWW Most recently they lost to Sporting CP 0–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FC Porto arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Benfica and 1.1 for FC Porto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Benfica 45%, draw 22%, FC Porto 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.90.
Value angle: FC Porto to win at 3.45 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Benfica 1–1 FC Porto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Benfica45%fair 2.25 · @2.14
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.20
FC Porto33%fair 3.01 · @3.45
2.45Expected goals
1.34Benfica xG
1.11FC Porto xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Benfica 1.3 – 1.1 FC Porto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✗
45%
2.25
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.62
–
Form
Benfica – last 4
WLLW
2 Mar
@ GIL Vicente
2–1
W
25 Feb
@ Real Madrid
1–2
L
17 Feb
vs Real Madrid
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
FC Porto – last 4
LWWW
3 Mar
@ Sporting CP
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Arouca
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs Rio Ave
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Nacional
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and FC Porto.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Benfica vs FC Porto?
On our numbers Benfica have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FC Porto 33%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs FC Porto?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs FC Porto?
Our predicted score is Benfica 1–1 FC Porto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs FC Porto?
Benfica vs FC Porto (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
