Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons preview and prediction
The match
Baglan Dragons travel to Ammanford Recreation Ground in the FAW Championship on Friday 20 March (20:30 WAT) to face Ammanford AFC.
Form guide
Ammanford AFC's last 4: WLWD Most recently they beat Cardiff Draconians 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Baglan Dragons's last 4: LWLL Most recently they lost to Treowen Stars 1–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Ammanford AFC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Ammanford AFC and 0.6 for Baglan Dragons. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ammanford AFC 68%, draw 21%, Baglan Dragons 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ammanford AFC to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Ammanford AFC 1–0 Baglan Dragons. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ammanford AFC68%fair 1.47 · @1.35
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @4.33
Baglan Dragons11%fair 9.03 · @7.00
2.51Expected goals
1.90Ammanford AFC xG
0.61Baglan Dragons xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–015%
1–19%
3–09%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Ammanford AFC 1.9 – 0.6 Baglan Dragons expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ammanford AFC to win✓
68%
1.47
1.35
Double chance
Ammanford AFC or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Ammanford AFC ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ammanford AFC / FT Ammanford AFC✓
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.16
–
Form
Ammanford AFC – last 4
WLWD
6 Mar
vs Cardiff Draconians
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Afan Lido
1–3
L
24 Feb
vs Aberystwyth Town
2–1
W
13 Feb
vs Trethomas Bluebirds
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Baglan Dragons – last 4
LWLL
17 Mar
@ Treowen Stars
1–4
L
6 Mar
@ Newport City
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Pontypridd Town
0–2
L
17 Feb
@ Trefelin
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ammanford AFC and Baglan Dragons.
What is the prediction for Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
Our pick is Ammanford AFC to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
On our numbers Ammanford AFC have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Baglan Dragons 11%.
How many goals will there be in Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
Our predicted score is Ammanford AFC 1–0 Baglan Dragons, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Ammanford Recreation Ground.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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