Newport City vs Llantwit Major prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Newport City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Newport City to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewport City to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chanceNewport City or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.83
Newport City vs Llantwit Major preview and prediction
The match
Llantwit Major travel to Newport Stadium in the FAW Championship on Friday 20 February (20:30 WAT) to face Newport City. Newport City are 13th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Llantwit Major sit 15th on 12 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Newport City and 0.7 for Llantwit Major. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 45%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newport City 62%, draw 23%, Llantwit Major 15%.
Safer route: Newport City or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Value angle: Newport City to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Newport City or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Newport City 1–0 Llantwit Major. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newport City62%fair 1.62 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.40
Llantwit Major15%fair 6.66 · @3.40
2.48Expected goals
1.76Newport City xG
0.73Llantwit Major xG
45%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Newport City 1.8 – 0.7 Llantwit Major expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newport City to win✓
62%
1.62
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Newport City or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Newport City ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newport City / FT Newport City✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.83
–
Form
Newport City – last 1
W
13 Feb
@ Afan Lido
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Llantwit Major
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newport City and Llantwit Major.
What is the prediction for Newport City vs Llantwit Major?
Our pick is Newport City or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Newport City vs Llantwit Major?
On our numbers Newport City have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Llantwit Major 15%.
How many goals will there be in Newport City vs Llantwit Major?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newport City vs Llantwit Major?
Our predicted score is Newport City 1–0 Llantwit Major, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Newport City vs Llantwit Major?
Newport City vs Llantwit Major (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Newport Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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