The Segunda División sees Malaga take on Sporting Gijon on Saturday 9 May, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio La Rosaleda.
Form guide
Malaga's last 4: DWWL Most recently they drew with FC Andorra 3–3 away. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Sporting Gijon's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Cordoba 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Malaga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Malaga and 0.9 for Sporting Gijon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 59%.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Malaga 2–0 Sporting Gijon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Malaga63%fair 1.59 · @1.53
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @4.10
Sporting Gijon17%fair 5.77 · @5.75
2.86Expected goals
1.96Malaga xG
0.90Sporting Gijon xG
59%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Malaga 2.0 – 0.9 Sporting Gijon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Malaga to win
63%
1.59
1.53
Double chance
Malaga or draw
83%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.69
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.42
Half-time result
Malaga ahead at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Malaga / FT Malaga
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
11%
8.92
–
Form
Malaga – last 4
DWWL
1 Apr
@ FC Andorra
3–3
D
15 Mar
vs Huesca
5–3
W
22 Feb
vs Albacete
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Real Sociedad II
1–2
L
2.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Sporting Gijon – last 6
LWWLLD
26 Apr
@ Cordoba
2–3
L
19 Apr
vs Cadiz
3–0
W
6 Apr
vs Real Sociedad II
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Racing Santander
1–3
L
8 Mar
@ FC Andorra
0–1
L
2 Mar
vs Leganes
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malaga and Sporting Gijon.
What is the prediction for Malaga vs Sporting Gijon?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Malaga vs Sporting Gijon?
On our numbers Malaga have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sporting Gijon 17%.
How many goals will there be in Malaga vs Sporting Gijon?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malaga vs Sporting Gijon?
Our predicted score is Malaga 2–0 Sporting Gijon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Malaga vs Sporting Gijon?
Malaga vs Sporting Gijon (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Rosaleda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cultural Leonesa
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