Burgos host Almeria in the Segunda División on Saturday 9 May, with kick-off at 15:15 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío. Burgos are 3rd with 24 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Almeria sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Burgos's last 4: DWDL Most recently they drew with AD Ceuta FC 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Almeria's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Mirandes 4–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Almeria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Burgos and 1.4 for Almeria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Burgos 35%, draw 24%, Almeria 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Burgos 1–1 Almeria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burgos35%fair 2.82 · @2.74
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.25
Almeria40%fair 2.47 · @2.50
2.71Expected goals
1.30Burgos xG
1.41Almeria xG
61%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Burgos 1.3 – 1.4 Almeria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Almeria to win
40%
2.47
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.64
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
50%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Almeria / FT Almeria
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
9%
10.63
–
Form
Burgos – last 4
DWDL
1 Apr
vs AD Ceuta FC
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Cordoba
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Eibar
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Racing Santander
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Almeria – last 6
WWLWWW
4 May
vs Mirandes
4–2
W
5 Apr
vs Leganes
2–1
W
2 Apr
@ Castellón
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Real Sociedad II
5–1
W
20 Mar
@ Huesca
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Cultural Leonesa
3–0
W
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burgos and Almeria.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Burgos vs Almeria?
On our numbers Burgos have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Almeria 40%.
How many goals will there be in Burgos vs Almeria?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burgos vs Almeria?
Our predicted score is Burgos 1–1 Almeria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Burgos vs Almeria?
Burgos vs Almeria (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cultural Leonesa
Zaragoza
Malaga