AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 9 May 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultCastellón to win ✗64% · @1.64

Double chanceCastellón or draw ✓84% · @1.18

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.55

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.39

AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón preview and prediction

The match

The Segunda División sees AD Ceuta FC take on Castellón on Saturday 9 May, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube. AD Ceuta FC are 22nd with 5 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Castellón sit 2nd on 27 points (in the top four). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.

Form guide

AD Ceuta FC's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with Real Sociedad II 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.

Castellón's last 4: WWDW Most recently they beat Granada CF 3–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Castellón arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.3.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.9 for AD Ceuta FC and 2.1 for Castellón. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.

Betting angles

Win chances: AD Ceuta FC 16%, draw 20%, Castellón 64%.
Safer route: Castellón or draw (84%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.55.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Castellón to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.64, above our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Castellón. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

AD Ceuta FC16%fair 6.17 · @4.70

Draw20%fair 5.00 · @4.00

Castellón64%fair 1.57 · @1.64

3.00Expected goals

0.93AD Ceuta FC xG

2.07Castellón xG

59%Both score

59%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

0–211%

0–110%

1–210%

1–110%

0–37%

1–37%

From our goals model: AD Ceuta FC 0.9 – 2.1 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Castellón to win ✗	64%	1.57	1.64
Double chance	Castellón or draw ✓	84%	1.19	1.18
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	59%	1.70	1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	59%	1.69	1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	62%	1.60	1.57
Half-time result	Castellón ahead at half-time ✗	46%	2.16	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Castellón / FT Castellón ✗	41%	2.44	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–2 ✗	11%	9.39	–

Form

AD Ceuta FC – last 6

DLDWLW

10 Apr	vs Real Sociedad II	0–0	D
5 Apr	@ Eibar	0–3	L
1 Apr	@ Burgos	1–1	D
28 Mar	vs Cadiz	2–1	W
8 Mar	@ Las Palmas	0–4	L
1 Mar	@ Mirandes	1–0	W

0.7Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Castellón – last 4

WWDW

6 Apr	vs Granada CF	3–2	W
2 Apr	vs Almeria	2–0	W
23 Mar	vs Cultural Leonesa	1–1	D
15 Feb	vs Deportivo La Coruna	2–0	W

2.0Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

25%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5

Team

Pts

+14

+18

-1

+10

-2

-2

-6

-6

-7

-12

-5

-2

-11

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?

Our pick is Castellón to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.64.

Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?

On our numbers AD Ceuta FC have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Castellón 64%.

How many goals will there be in AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?

Our predicted score is AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Castellón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?

AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

By day

Match result

Goals

Exact outcomes