Value bet: Rayo Vallecano to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultValencia to win ✗43% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.80
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano preview and prediction
The match
Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio de Mestalla in the La Liga on Thursday 14 May (18:00 WAT) to face Valencia. Valencia are 19th with 9 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Rayo Vallecano sit 14th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Valencia's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Athletic Club 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rayo Vallecano's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Girona 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Valencia and 1.1 for Rayo Vallecano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Rayo Vallecano to win at 3.30 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valencia43%fair 2.31 · @2.22
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Rayo Vallecano34%fair 2.91 · @3.30
2.44Expected goals
1.31Valencia xG
1.13Rayo Vallecano xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Valencia 1.3 – 1.1 Rayo Vallecano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valencia to win✗
43%
2.31
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valencia / FT Valencia✗
24%
4.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.80
–
Form
Valencia – last 6
WDLWLW
10 May
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
21 Apr
@ Mallorca
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Celta Vigo
2–3
L
1 Mar
vs Osasuna
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Villarreal
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Levante
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Rayo Vallecano – last 6
DWWDWL
11 May
vs Girona
1–1
D
7 May
@ Strasbourg
1–0
W
30 Apr
vs Strasbourg
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Real Sociedad
3–3
D
23 Apr
vs Espanyol
1–0
W
16 Apr
@ AEK Athens FC
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valencia and Rayo Vallecano.
What is the prediction for Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
On our numbers Valencia have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rayo Vallecano 34%.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our predicted score is Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mestalla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Girona1
Oviedo0