Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.42 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
2
Value bet: Barcelona to win @ 2.08 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBarcelona to win ✗52% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.42
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.47
Alaves vs Barcelona preview and prediction
The match
Barcelona travel to Estadio Mendizorrotza in the La Liga on Wednesday 13 May (20:30 WAT) to face Alaves. Alaves are 12th with 13 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Barcelona sit 1st on 33 points (top of the table). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Alaves's last 5: DLDWD Most recently they drew with Elche 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Barcelona's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Celta Vigo 1–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Barcelona arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.3 for Alaves and 1.9 for Barcelona. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 64%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alaves 28%, draw 19%, Barcelona 52%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.42.
Value angle: Barcelona to win at 2.08 – 52% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 64% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Alaves 1–1 Barcelona. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alaves28%fair 3.55 · @3.10
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @3.75
Barcelona52%fair 1.91 · @2.08
3.17Expected goals
1.30Alaves xG
1.87Barcelona xG
64%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–210%
0–18%
0–27%
2–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.3 – 1.9 Barcelona expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barcelona to win✗
52%
1.91
2.08 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Half-time result
Barcelona ahead at half-time✗
39%
2.59
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barcelona / FT Barcelona✗
31%
3.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.47
–
Form
Alaves – last 6
DLDWDL
9 May
@ Elche
1–1
D
21 Apr
@ Real Madrid
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Osasuna
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Celta Vigo
4–3
W
13 Mar
vs Villarreal
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Barcelona – last 6
WWLWWW
22 Apr
vs Celta Vigo
1–0
W
14 Apr
@ Atletico Madrid
2–1
W
8 Apr
vs Atletico Madrid
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Rayo Vallecano
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Newcastle
7–2
W
15 Mar
vs Sevilla
5–2
W
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Barcelona.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Alaves vs Barcelona?
On our numbers Alaves have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Barcelona 52%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Barcelona?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Barcelona?
Our predicted score is Alaves 1–1 Barcelona, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Barcelona?
Alaves vs Barcelona (La Liga) kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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